Flying cars used to be the province of science fiction novels. But now, “flying cars” are real, with over 300 different models being designed and dozens of real prototypes flying as of February 2023.
Except that it’s not so much a flying car as an actual aircraft: an electric vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft, to be exact. Sure, we already have helicopters, which technically qualify as VTOLs, but those are noisy and polluting. Today, with green electric batteries, avionics manufacturers are pushing the envelope by developing small, energy-efficient one-to-four-passenger vehicles that can take off and land vertically without a long runway. In short, manufacturers are developing an “air taxi” that could theoretically replace your car one day.
And just as automobile manufacturers are exploring the possibilities of electric cars, which have now been commercially available for several years, the growing interest in VTOLs also centers on electrically powered VTOLs, or eVTOLs. Getting eVTOLs off the ground, as it were, is a major priority in the future of avionics, and many experts believe the vehicles are only a couple years away from full-scale production. But since eVTOLs have vastly different regulatory expectations and safety requirements compared to traditional aircraft, the road hasn’t been particularly smooth.
Still, considering that the concept of an eVTOL didn’t hit the market until 2008, the innovation that’s taken place in less than 15 years has been staggering. Here’s the lowdown on eVTOL and where this amazing technology is headed.
Why eVTOL?
What are aircraft manufacturers hoping to accomplish with eVTOL? Well, the first goal is to reduce carbon emissions. The amount of CO2 emissions from commercial aircraft went up by more than 30% between 2013 and 2018. In just five years. So aviation is one of the top targets for reducing carbon emissions in general.
The second goal is to achieve urban air mobility (UAM). Urban air mobility means using highly automated, low-altitude eVTOLs to speed up urban travel and help ease the traffic burden on roads.
The third goal is to make aircraft more financially accessible to the average person. Rather than paying hundreds or thousands of dollars for a commercial flight, individuals could theoretically use an eVTOL air taxi to take a couple-hundred-mile flight to a neighboring state, or even to commute to work at just $1 per mile. Mile for mile, that’s less than the cost of a typical Uber. Although some consider that kind of low-cost flight a pipe dream, some believe it could become possible in just a few years.
Recent eVTOL Innovations
With so many great reasons to pursue eVTOL, and since electric cars have been commercially available, you might think that commercial-scale eVTOL production would be widespread by now. And it’s true that unmanned eVTOLs have been commercially available in the form of drones for quite some time. In 2015 alone, the FAA issued around 3,000 drone permits. But so far, there haven’t been any mass-produced passenger eVTOL aircraft designs due to aviation certification issues: when it comes to manned eVTOLs—i.e., air taxis—the safety concerns have inhibited widespread development and adoption.
That doesn’t mean there hasn’t been any development in manned eVTOLs, though. In 2017, Airbus introduced an eVTOL design at the Paris Air Show, and in the same year, Boeing introduced another innovative eVTOL model. In 2020, Joby Aviation entered the scene and would soon become the leading eVTOL developer. In the same year, Tetra Aviation won an award for a single-seat eVTOL design. Still, many of the most important advancements in funding and eVTOL research have all happened in 2021 and 2022.
Developments in 2022
The year 2022 saw major advancements in both the production and the regulatory aspects of eVTOL development. Major eVTOL designer EHang is already in production with early 2023 Chinese certification; however, that certification will likely not be accepted by FAA or EASA due to more stringent rules. Volocopter, Joby, and Archer are in early certification stages with this author thinking 2026 certification is more realistic. Wisk, Lilium, Supernal, and others are in prototype and test flight mode to varying degrees.
As for developments on the regulatory side, the FAA initially announced intentions to base its eVTOL regulations strongly on regulatory requirements for small, general aviation aircraft. But the plans for increased automation in eVTOLs, plus the differences in hardware for vertical takeoff and landing compared to those of standard aircraft, mean that the FAA eVTOL regulations may not be enough. Meanwhile, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) is finalizing a separate set of special condition standards and regulations specific to eVTOL aircraft. Developing regulations specific to eVTOL is a step in the right direction and much-needed, since regulations are the primary factor holding up commercial-scale eVTOL aircraft production. The FAA took notice and is likewise adopting eVTOL specific certification guidelines.
Challenges to the Future of eVTOL Avionics
What should you expect for eVTOL, given that FAA and EASA certifications are taking their sweet time catching up with the technological developments for these aircraft?
Well, to be fair, there are some unique challenges to a certification for eVTOL aircraft, particularly in the fully automated category. First, many people feel very uncomfortable and uncertain about the safety of unpiloted eVTOLs. The main issue lies in eVTOL hardware designs compared to those of standard aircraft. If a standard airplane loses power mid-flight, chances are that a pilot or a well-programmed automated system can force the plane into a glide and bring it to safety because the large wings can generate some lift even if the engine isn’t functioning. By contrast, most eVTOLs rely on small propellers, which can’t generate sufficient lift to bring the vehicle into a glide if the engine fails; this is something regular helicopters can accomplish via “auto-rotation”..
Also, certification costs drive the price up even more. Consider DO-178C, the extremely rigid software standard for critical systems in aviation. DO-178C increases initial software engineering costs up to 40% for great companies and much more for “average” companies. The costs will be even higher in autonomous eVTOLs, which would have to rely entirely on software for a safe flight.
The third challenge is that the FAA wanted to use existing standards instead of developing new ones specific to eVTOL. Regulations for eVTOL need to take into account battery management, vertical/horizontal thrust transition, and safety, air traffic control, ground infrastructure for charging batteries and landing, plus many other factors that current standards simply didn’t address. So eVTOL aircraft are finalizing their Certification Basis for aircraft/system certification and regulatory compliance.
Final Predictions
We already have eVTOL aircraft that are fully functional. Leading companies like Volocopter, Airbus and Joby have successfully tested and demonstrated eVTOL capabilities. Various experts in avionics acknowledge the innovation and possibilities of the technology, and industry leaders have already conducted many thousands of hours of test flights. So how far could eVTOL go in the next couple decades?
Here are our thoughts: As far as autonomous eVTOLS are concerned, passenger-free, small-cargo eVTOLs are already a reality. They’re called drones. But longer-range and larger-payload autonomous eVTOLs are years out.
It may take 3-5 years for commercial-sized 10+ passenger eVTOL aircraft to take to the skies, and up to 8-10 years for a 150-plus passenger electric aircraft to hit the 500-mile range mark. However already partial hydrogen-powered passenger aircraft conversions are being tested. And many experts agree that production of fully electric avionics systems will likely take a couple decades to reach the same scale as carbon-fueled aircraft production.
In the end, avionics development is unpredictable. The unprecedented speed of development in eVTOL has astonished many experts and overturned many early predictions. So there’s really no certainty regarding how far eVTOL development could progress in the coming years. What we do know is that there will be more innovation in the eVTOL space, and that’s going to be well worth the wait.
